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2004.08.05

日本の人口のピークは今年?

Yahoo!NEWSより「増加率0・11%で最低 人口は1億2682万人

 総務省は4日、住民基本台帳に基づく今年3月31日現在の全国の人口動態を発表した。総人口は1億2682万4166人で、前年より13万5802人、0・11%増えたが、増加数、率とも1968年の調査開始以来、過去最低の伸びとなった。

人口が減少に転じるのは紛れもない事実ですが、問題はいつそれがおこるかでしょう。国立社会保障・人口問題研究所は出生率が高い水準で推移した場合の「高位推計」、低い水準で推移した場合の「低位推計」、中間の「中位推計」を発表しています。

一般的に使われる中位推計では日本の人口は2006年に1億2774万人でピークに達しその後2050年には1億60万人まで減少します。いわゆる2006年問題です。一方、高位推計では2009年に1億2815万人でピークに達し2050年に1億825万人まで減少します。

しかし、合計特殊出生率が1.29まで下がっていることを考えると最も低い水準の低位推計が俄然注目されます。低位推計では2004年、つまり今年に1億2748万人でピークに達し2050年には9203万人まで減少します。

この数値をみているかぎり低位推計よりも下方で人口は推移していくような気もします。

 年金問題も絡み注目される出生者数は112万9239人と最低。65歳以上の老年人口の割合は前年より0・42ポイント増の19・24%と最高になり、少子高齢化がさらに進んだ。地方の人口減が際立ってきた。一世帯の平均人数も2・54人と最低を更新、核家族化も続いている。

やっぱり今年が人口のピークなんでしょうか。

いずれにしても人口が減少していくことを前提とした社会システムの構築と国民の意識改革が必要ですね。

<参考>総務省統計局国立社会保障・人口問題研究所

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殺人事件や年金問題よりも、深刻なニュースです。Yahoo!ニュースから。 <日本の人口>3月末で1億2682万人 増加数・率は最低 この記事に見られ... [Read More]

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